Monday, October 24, 2016

Global trading

When asked about my career, and  my trading background, it is interesting how many people I speak to just assume that trading could only have been my role in the stock market game. They assume that as a trader that I have been buying and selling stocks of companies in New York.

Although I have studied financial markets and  have traded the financial markets as a desk trader, trading predominantly forex and cash, this type of trading is not the type of trading that has consumed much of my career. I thoroughly enjoyed sitting behind the wall of computer screens, looking at the graphs with one telephone to my left ear and another to my right, trading the positions of my clients. I loved the excitement and rush of adrenaline in the moment and quickly having to move with the market in the instant of major movements and breaking news.

Trading though has been around long before the New York Stock Exchange or any other exchange came to being. Traders were the adventurous people that plotted the wide open world as we know it today as they explored opportunities to find new products and supplies for the native  markets mainly in Europe. The trading of physical products or commodities is something that has been lost over the years as people become more and more absorbed by Wall Street.

All companies except those in the professional services and manufacturing sectors, really are traders, they buy and sell products and make a margin between the two price we call profit.

There is a couple of important similarities between the trading undertaken on the financial markets and the trading done in the physical product or commodities business. One of the most important tools to a trader is  information. As a forex trader, I was staying abreast of all the news that was coming out from government and company reports. We studied the data and positioned our clients to benefit from the data. Information is what drives the financial markets, but so does it drive the physical markets. The better positioned the client was based on the information, the less we had to scramble when the market was trying to play catch up.

The difference between a trader and just a sales person is their deep knowledge of an industry, the expectations of their customers and suppliers, the market pricing and market willingness to pay the prices or margins asked of it. 

Traders use the information to take stances and positions on where an industry will move towards. Looking for arbitrage opportunities to capitalize on. When I traded forex, based on the market and the information, I would assume a market price at which buying the foreign currency was a "fair trade". If I was able to buy beneath that price I was adding tremendous value to my customer, and I would certainly not allow them to pay above that price. In the same way when trading physical products and commodities, as a trader I need to understand the "fair price" by studying the markets, the role players and looking for opportunities that exist, even for a short period where there is less market liquidity or surplus.

I would negotiate greater profits by buying at lower pricing using various tools to achieve this, but being aware of the market conditions, I would not conclude transactions where I would lose my margins. Sometimes this would mean taking stock of products or commodities to keep my costs fixed and not have it rising against a lowering selling price.

Trading is an age old activity, but in order to be a successful trader, you need to study and understand your market inside out, with courage to follow through on your market conclusions.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Economics in a bubble - and not that bubble

I have a particularly technical and analytical mind. With this analytical and technical mid, I am drawn to the sciences, learning and questioning all that I find around me. I always enjoyed studying science and physics with the math behind the explanation of WHY things happen the way that they do.

I was reminded the other day of how in the study of physics, all the equations are based in a vacuum. Being in a vacuum means that there are no interfering 3rd parties or objects. This makes the equations simple and finding the solution straight forward. The force exerted on an object is equal to the result, since in physics, there is no friction between the ground and the object being pushed in any particular direction. The reality is not quite the same. We all know that pushing a stone up a hill gets only more difficult with time, since the slope or gradient of the hill is not constant, and due to our fatigue setting in more and more!



It got me thinking about the simplistic or idealistic view on the economy and economics. If we were to run the economy according to certain economical principles with a vacuum or bubble without any interference, surely the results would come out very favorable for the economic approach and theory. However economic theories are not proven merely on a piece of paper but in reality! This is where the rubber hits the road and it gets ugly, in the land of reality!

Economic principles and theories can not be evaluated in reality without the interference of 3rd parties that act as the friction between the ideas, hopes and intentions, and the challenges facing the human race. Many times the fatigue of overcoming all the obstacles and challenges causes those with the desires and intentions to make a positive difference in the various communities locally and globally buckle and get hit by the rolling stone on the way down, being run over by the stone that gathers no moss!

In a community with growing numbers, an economy has to grow, on paper it can make no sense why it would be contracting when there are more mouths to feed, bodies to clothe and people to house. With growing economies we should see growing wages due to increased profits, so why do we see this constant cyclical up and down in an economy?

In a one word answer, Humans!